South China Sea Active Conflict Areas
September 6, 2024
There are is one active conflict zone in the Spratly Islands, with Philippine (and allied) and Chinese naval and air assets executing non-fatal, non-lethal 'gray zone' conflict. Why? The Escoda Shoal / Sabina Shoal / Xianbian Jiao underwater atoll provides a strategic island option that is in SRBM missile range of Manilla. We do see a little reclamation occurring on the site, and it is possible this is the next potential island in the West Philippine Sea. The conflict is made possible by the lack of island building in the West Philippine Sea by The Philippines, leaving these locations open to foreign exploitation.
The other recent conflict zones, in the Second Thomas Shoal and the Scarborough Shoal, seem to have simmered down.
There are is one active conflict zone in the Spratly Islands, with Philippine (and allied) and Chinese naval and air assets executing non-fatal, non-lethal 'gray zone' conflict. Why? The Escoda Shoal / Sabina Shoal / Xianbian Jiao underwater atoll provides a strategic island option that is in SRBM missile range of Manilla. We do see a little reclamation occurring on the site, and it is possible this is the next potential island in the West Philippine Sea. The conflict is made possible by the lack of island building in the West Philippine Sea by The Philippines, leaving these locations open to foreign exploitation.
The other recent conflict zones, in the Second Thomas Shoal and the Scarborough Shoal, seem to have simmered down.
On August 19, 2024, Chinese and Philippine Coast Guard Ships collided at sea by Sabina Shoal. It was around 20 nautical miles southeast of Escoda Shoal. The ships BRP Bagacay and BRP Cape Engano were damaged. The Chinese ships were China Coast Guard vessels CCGV-3104 and CCGV-21551, nor do we know if they were damaged in this AP News article. This is in the West Philippine Sea, west of Palawan. Source: USNI.
“In violently impeding Philippine Coast Guard operations on the high seas near Sabina Shoal, China has opened up a new front in its gray-zone maritime campaign in the West Philippine Sea, moving the front lines to within 75 nautical miles of the Philippine mainland,” said Ray Powell, Director of the SeaLight Project.
The Philippine vessels were on their way to resupply the Philippine outposts at Nanshan and Flat Islands. Source: USNI.
A year ago we started reading about Chinese and Philippine Coast Guard ships, and merchant marine and fishing boats, having conflicts around the Second Thomas Shoal, in the West Philippine Sea, west of Palawan. The conflict occurs because China's military has declared that area off limits to the Philippines and prevents incursions with force.We read of a recent agreement to end hostilities in this area between China and the Philippines.
Scarborough Shoal has also seen recent conflict (August 2024), with China and Philippine military aircraft patrolling and counter-patrolling. Source USNI News.
There have also been active conflicts between China and Vietnam around Vanguard Bank specific to natural gas deposits and exploration. Both countries want (and need) the resources and wealth, and both seem willing to fight to protect their territorial claims.
We don't see these conflicts as publicly in the social media and open source press we read, but it does not mean those conflicts are not still ongoing (just that we don't see them).
We don't see these conflicts as publicly in the social media and open source press we read, but it does not mean those conflicts are not still ongoing (just that we don't see them).