South China Sea Active Conflict Areas
May 14, 2025 Update
There are significantly new "Grey Zone" conflicts and 'Gray War' confrontations occurring weekly in the area in 2025.
Here are a few examples we found in open source intelligence (read: Google Search).
1. February 11, 2025: Australia protested after a Chinese J-16 fighter jet released flares that passed within 30 meters (100 feet) of an Australian P-8 Poseidon surveillance jet over the South China Sea, according to Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles. The Australian military plane did not sustain any damage and no crewmember was injured. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson accused the Australian aircraft of “deliberately” intruding into airspace over the disputed Paracel Islands, which China and Vietnam contest.
2. February 18, 2025: over the Scarborough Shoal / Huangyan Dao a Chinese military helicopter from the PLA Navy or (PLAN) flew within three (3) meters of a Philippines Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources plane (a C-208) reconnaissance aircraft that was filled with Western journalists. This is almost spitting distance and very hazardous flying. This sparked a response from the U.S. Ambassador to the Philippines on Twitter. The Chinese point of view is that the aircraft was violating the law and required punishment or deterrence based on where it was, over the Scarborough Shoal and PRC sovereign territory. This would be like my grade-school teachers saying "you are lucky I did not kill you for that" when I was in 6th grade and went into the school library by myself to read. The PRC has also installed a floating. barrier to prevent fishermen from entering a lagoon in the shoal. This is a normal and customary escalation step.
3. In late 2024, there was an allegation that China was "swarming" the Whitsun Reef, which we assume was with private fishing and merchant marine vessels.
4. On April 2, 2025, the United States agreed to sell twenty (20) F-16 fighter jets, along with required spares, supplies, maintenance, training and ammunition to the Philippines. This contract is worth $5.58 billion which will be paid by the Philippines (or used as a trade credit for Filipino exports).
5. Japan and China are starting to feel some tension in the air and water. The short answer is that China has been circumnavigating Taiwan Island and in other times has been patrolling east of Japan and the Philippines into the Pacific Ocean. To do this, China is sending planes (manned and unmanned) and CCG vessels into waters surrounding Chinese, Taiwanese and Philippine islands that are considered sovereign airspace. The patrols around Taiwan, when sketched in news articles, make a thick line of patrols and demonstrate an ability to potentially blockade the island. However, the threat it poses to Japan is being registered by scrambling Japanese Defense Force fighter jets and lodging diplomatic complaints.
6. Not really a conflict...
We have been reading about Sandy Cay, which is in the Thitu Island reef structure (to the East) and pretty close to Subi Reef (which is Northeast of Thitu). It is a tiny spit of land, a circular cay, very small with no habitation, no bathrooms, no water source, and actually no vegetation. For more context, Thiru Island (Philippines main military island in the SCS) and Subi Reef (one of four main PRC military islands in the SCS) are only 15 miles apart, and this cay is on that line. On April 27, 2025, PRC PLAN landed troops on the island to pick up trash and they put up a PRC flag. Three days later, the Philippines Coast Guard, Maritime Police and Navy arrived and replaced flags while flipping the bird.
7. Aggressive patrolling by the Chinese Coast Guard Zhaotou-class offshore patrol ship Haijing 5901, due 77 nautical miles west of Capones Island, San Antonio, Zambales, Philippines. An area of open water between Scarborough Shoal and Capones Island (just off the coast of Philippines).
8. Context is everything. Chinese unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV and UCAVs) and potentially unmanned surface vehicles (USV and UCSVs) have been encircling Taiwan on a regular basis, along with manned flights of aircraft bombers like the XAC H-6 bomber. The encircling flights have started on April 27, 2025, and are successful attempts by the Chinese PLAN and PLAA to demonstrate its ability to cut off Taiwan. The problem for the South China Sea and East China Sea participants Japan and the Philippines is that China requires access to their territorial waters to do this. In time of war or conflict, will those nations block China or reach a deconfliction agreement to avoid a shooting war.
9. The Chinese deployed military-grade lasers against Philippine vessels in 2023 via a Zhaojun-class offshore patrol vessel (OPV) the Haijing 5205. This is a Type 718B vessel. Green laser light. I keep thinking about the Austin Powers movie where Doctor Evil says that he wants "sharks with laser beams strapped to their frickin heads."
10. We have Janes reporting that China is carrying out its reconnaissance runs from Guiping Mengshu Air Base, which has a 2-mile long main runway, and currently about 10 jets parked in a beautiful straight row off the tarmac. It is located here: 23.3307991, 110.0090027 and is due north of Haikou on the coast, Zhanjiang and Yulin, and due west of Wuzhou and Guangzhou. China is using the H-6J carrying YJ-12 supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles under wing, sea mines and bombs in the belly. The Y-12J has a range of ~500 km and also the YJ-83K anti-ship missile for close-in missions (180 km). They also have ECM countermeasure pods beneath the wings.
11. China is starting to use the J-20 stealth fighters, whichc recently switched to domestically produced Shenyang-Liming WS10C turbofan engines for more power and a lighter weight. They have started to patrol the East China Seas (combat) and South China Seas (alert) with the J-20. This was discussed in a press conference on April 12, 2025 by Ren Yukun of AVIC.
There are significantly new "Grey Zone" conflicts and 'Gray War' confrontations occurring weekly in the area in 2025.
Here are a few examples we found in open source intelligence (read: Google Search).
1. February 11, 2025: Australia protested after a Chinese J-16 fighter jet released flares that passed within 30 meters (100 feet) of an Australian P-8 Poseidon surveillance jet over the South China Sea, according to Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles. The Australian military plane did not sustain any damage and no crewmember was injured. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson accused the Australian aircraft of “deliberately” intruding into airspace over the disputed Paracel Islands, which China and Vietnam contest.
2. February 18, 2025: over the Scarborough Shoal / Huangyan Dao a Chinese military helicopter from the PLA Navy or (PLAN) flew within three (3) meters of a Philippines Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources plane (a C-208) reconnaissance aircraft that was filled with Western journalists. This is almost spitting distance and very hazardous flying. This sparked a response from the U.S. Ambassador to the Philippines on Twitter. The Chinese point of view is that the aircraft was violating the law and required punishment or deterrence based on where it was, over the Scarborough Shoal and PRC sovereign territory. This would be like my grade-school teachers saying "you are lucky I did not kill you for that" when I was in 6th grade and went into the school library by myself to read. The PRC has also installed a floating. barrier to prevent fishermen from entering a lagoon in the shoal. This is a normal and customary escalation step.
3. In late 2024, there was an allegation that China was "swarming" the Whitsun Reef, which we assume was with private fishing and merchant marine vessels.
4. On April 2, 2025, the United States agreed to sell twenty (20) F-16 fighter jets, along with required spares, supplies, maintenance, training and ammunition to the Philippines. This contract is worth $5.58 billion which will be paid by the Philippines (or used as a trade credit for Filipino exports).
5. Japan and China are starting to feel some tension in the air and water. The short answer is that China has been circumnavigating Taiwan Island and in other times has been patrolling east of Japan and the Philippines into the Pacific Ocean. To do this, China is sending planes (manned and unmanned) and CCG vessels into waters surrounding Chinese, Taiwanese and Philippine islands that are considered sovereign airspace. The patrols around Taiwan, when sketched in news articles, make a thick line of patrols and demonstrate an ability to potentially blockade the island. However, the threat it poses to Japan is being registered by scrambling Japanese Defense Force fighter jets and lodging diplomatic complaints.
6. Not really a conflict...
We have been reading about Sandy Cay, which is in the Thitu Island reef structure (to the East) and pretty close to Subi Reef (which is Northeast of Thitu). It is a tiny spit of land, a circular cay, very small with no habitation, no bathrooms, no water source, and actually no vegetation. For more context, Thiru Island (Philippines main military island in the SCS) and Subi Reef (one of four main PRC military islands in the SCS) are only 15 miles apart, and this cay is on that line. On April 27, 2025, PRC PLAN landed troops on the island to pick up trash and they put up a PRC flag. Three days later, the Philippines Coast Guard, Maritime Police and Navy arrived and replaced flags while flipping the bird.
7. Aggressive patrolling by the Chinese Coast Guard Zhaotou-class offshore patrol ship Haijing 5901, due 77 nautical miles west of Capones Island, San Antonio, Zambales, Philippines. An area of open water between Scarborough Shoal and Capones Island (just off the coast of Philippines).
8. Context is everything. Chinese unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV and UCAVs) and potentially unmanned surface vehicles (USV and UCSVs) have been encircling Taiwan on a regular basis, along with manned flights of aircraft bombers like the XAC H-6 bomber. The encircling flights have started on April 27, 2025, and are successful attempts by the Chinese PLAN and PLAA to demonstrate its ability to cut off Taiwan. The problem for the South China Sea and East China Sea participants Japan and the Philippines is that China requires access to their territorial waters to do this. In time of war or conflict, will those nations block China or reach a deconfliction agreement to avoid a shooting war.
9. The Chinese deployed military-grade lasers against Philippine vessels in 2023 via a Zhaojun-class offshore patrol vessel (OPV) the Haijing 5205. This is a Type 718B vessel. Green laser light. I keep thinking about the Austin Powers movie where Doctor Evil says that he wants "sharks with laser beams strapped to their frickin heads."
10. We have Janes reporting that China is carrying out its reconnaissance runs from Guiping Mengshu Air Base, which has a 2-mile long main runway, and currently about 10 jets parked in a beautiful straight row off the tarmac. It is located here: 23.3307991, 110.0090027 and is due north of Haikou on the coast, Zhanjiang and Yulin, and due west of Wuzhou and Guangzhou. China is using the H-6J carrying YJ-12 supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles under wing, sea mines and bombs in the belly. The Y-12J has a range of ~500 km and also the YJ-83K anti-ship missile for close-in missions (180 km). They also have ECM countermeasure pods beneath the wings.
11. China is starting to use the J-20 stealth fighters, whichc recently switched to domestically produced Shenyang-Liming WS10C turbofan engines for more power and a lighter weight. They have started to patrol the East China Seas (combat) and South China Seas (alert) with the J-20. This was discussed in a press conference on April 12, 2025 by Ren Yukun of AVIC.
September 6, 2024
There are is one active conflict zone in the Spratly Islands, with Philippine (and allied) and Chinese naval and air assets executing non-fatal, non-lethal 'gray zone' conflict. Why? The Escoda Shoal / Sabina Shoal / Xianbian Jiao underwater atoll provides a strategic island option that is in SRBM missile range of Manilla. We do see a little reclamation occurring on the site, and it is possible this is the next potential island in the West Philippine Sea. The conflict is made possible by the lack of island building in the West Philippine Sea by The Philippines, leaving these locations open to foreign exploitation.
The other recent conflict zones, in the Second Thomas Shoal and the Scarborough Shoal, seem to have simmered down.
There are is one active conflict zone in the Spratly Islands, with Philippine (and allied) and Chinese naval and air assets executing non-fatal, non-lethal 'gray zone' conflict. Why? The Escoda Shoal / Sabina Shoal / Xianbian Jiao underwater atoll provides a strategic island option that is in SRBM missile range of Manilla. We do see a little reclamation occurring on the site, and it is possible this is the next potential island in the West Philippine Sea. The conflict is made possible by the lack of island building in the West Philippine Sea by The Philippines, leaving these locations open to foreign exploitation.
The other recent conflict zones, in the Second Thomas Shoal and the Scarborough Shoal, seem to have simmered down.
On August 19, 2024, Chinese and Philippine Coast Guard Ships collided at sea by Sabina Shoal. It was around 20 nautical miles southeast of Escoda Shoal. The ships BRP Bagacay and BRP Cape Engano were damaged. The Chinese ships were China Coast Guard vessels CCGV-3104 and CCGV-21551, nor do we know if they were damaged in this AP News article. This is in the West Philippine Sea, west of Palawan. Source: USNI.
“In violently impeding Philippine Coast Guard operations on the high seas near Sabina Shoal, China has opened up a new front in its gray-zone maritime campaign in the West Philippine Sea, moving the front lines to within 75 nautical miles of the Philippine mainland,” said Ray Powell, Director of the SeaLight Project.
The Philippine vessels were on their way to resupply the Philippine outposts at Nanshan and Flat Islands. Source: USNI.
A year ago we started reading about Chinese and Philippine Coast Guard ships, and merchant marine and fishing boats, having conflicts around the Second Thomas Shoal, in the West Philippine Sea, west of Palawan. The conflict occurs because China's military has declared that area off limits to the Philippines and prevents incursions with force.We read of a recent agreement to end hostilities in this area between China and the Philippines.
Scarborough Shoal has also seen recent conflict (August 2024), with China and Philippine military aircraft patrolling and counter-patrolling. Source USNI News. On February 18, 2025, a Chinese military (PLAN) helicopter flew within three (3) meters of a Philippines Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources C-208 reconnaissance aircraft (plane) traveling over the Scarborough Shoal. That was dangerous behavior by the helicopter, and the Chinese suggest the aircraft was trespassing over their island. Fortunately, nobody was hurt as there were international journalists on board the aircraft.
There have also been active conflicts between China and Vietnam around Vanguard Bank specific to natural gas deposits and exploration. Both countries want (and need) the resources and wealth, and both seem willing to fight to protect their territorial claims.
We don't see these conflicts as publicly in the social media and open source press we read, but it does not mean those conflicts are not still ongoing (just that we don't see them).
We don't see these conflicts as publicly in the social media and open source press we read, but it does not mean those conflicts are not still ongoing (just that we don't see them).