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  Chicago Quantum | US Advanced Computing Infrastructure, Inc.
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Week 10 market wrap and firm update video

3/12/2021

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It was fun this week.  I had prepared topics and it went pretty smoothly.  Interesting days in the markets, and good progress within the firm.

https://youtu.be/ObDA0CofsAk

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We have a 'short' model ... or at least an 'inefficient portfolio' CQNS model

3/11/2021

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Jeffrey Cohen, President, US Advanced Computing Infrastructure, Inc.

"It was a dark and stormy night..."

NASDAQ was falling, long bond yields were screaming higher, the dollar was strengthening, and fintwit tears could have overflowed Lake Michigan.  People were scared of the market.  Bitcoin had fallen $10k per coin, and the meme stock aftermath (GME and AMC) was a shattered set of dreams for retail and hedgies alike. The other thing we noticed was that annual returns for our three market exchanges we use in our model were all over 20%, and one was 65%.  These are heady returns.

In other words, it was time for one of our clients to think about a balance of long and short positions.  Get to the safe spot where you make money purely on Alpha and not on Beta.  Check out our tab 'Market Questions & Data' for explanation of terms.

We were ready for the challenge and revised our original Chicago Quantum Net Score model (our quantum algorithm) to pick 'dogstars' or stocks that had exceptional volatility, without a sense of direction.  In other words, their volatility exceeded their expected market returns.

So, we did it.  We are now offering that service on our website for clients that want a set of stocks to look at not owning (or shorting, or buying puts).  So far, the results are pretty good.  Initially we see the stocks falling, but then recoveries happen.  We plan to watch these stocks for a few months and report on progress.

It did find a stock that is in real trouble...although we had to study the financials and bond covenants and amended agreements to find out how badly they were in pain.  They owe more than $80M to a sharp investment house in Jersey (no, not New Jersey) due March 31, 2021.  I cannot see a way out for them...and so the model has already had value for our client.

Check it out for yourself.  A big run is $750 (where we evaluate exchanges) and a small run (where you provide the tickers) is $150.  Until supplies last, we will buy and donate a box of Girl Scout cookies for each paid run.

You can call me, and I can walk you through the logic and math.  Contact info is in the 'Contact' tab.  This is pretty cool work.
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What is dividend bias and how are we removing it?

3/3/2021

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Jeffrey Cohen, Wed, March 3, 2021

First, thank you to our newest client for pointing this out on Monday.  We had not seen, nor understood it, and we are grateful for the feedback.

So, what is a dividend bias and how do you get it?  Is it contagious? Can you cure it?

What is it?  When we analyze stocks we use the adjusted close data.  It reduces the price of certain stocks that either paid a dividend or performed a stock split.  The bigger the dividend (as a % of the closing price), the larger the reduction in prices.  This reduces the BETA of the dividend paying stocks (more for larger dividends).

This means that for our efficient portfolios, we were picking fewer dividend paying stocks than we should have picked.  If we pick 'inefficient' portfolios, then those portfolios would have more dividend paying stocks than they should.

We found it because our client wondered why the proportion of dividend paying stocks was different than expected in our chosen portfolio.

You can cure it.  We just did (still in testing, but an exciting development).  We will be adjusting the expected return calculations by a dividend percentage adjustment.  This is not a perfect fix, as the math requires us to adjust both the variance and the expected return...but this should work well and be feasible to implement.

We will share more about this, and I can almost imagine this going into a future academic paper.  Let us know if you have questions.

Regards,
Jeffrey Cohen
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Bankrupt Companies: Removed from stock tickers

3/2/2021

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Early in the development in the model, we noticed a unique stock pattern.  We found a stock, $WLL, that had increased in price overnight by an extremely high percentage.  As we looked into the matter, we saw that the company had exited Bankruptcy Court protection and the stock started to trade again under the same ticker symbol.  To avoid having the model evaluate this extraordinary price move, we decided to remove the ticker for a year after reorganization.

We recently ran a job for a client and found a second ticker, FTSI.  After that, we looked at about 50 companies that have either entered Chapter 11, or have emerged from bankruptcy and looked for other candidates for removal.  We found PG&E Corporation, which exited Chapter 11 on July 1, 2020.  The stock still trades under the same ticker symbol $PCG, and will be removed from our ticker list pulls.

If you know of other stocks which have retained the same ticker, and have started to trade on one of our supported exchanges, please let us know.

What we found was that most of the companies have moved to a status of 'private' and are no longer traded.  Others moved to the OTC market, or even the pink sheets/OTC, and those will not be analyzed.  One stock disappeared as the company was acquired.  And a few stocks appear as new stock tickers (and they won't pass the 1-year continuous trading validation).

Thank you for your support.
Jeffrey Cohen, President, US Advanced Computing Infrastructure, Inc.
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    Jeff Cohen

    Strategic IT Management Consultant with a strong interest in Quantum Computing.  Consulting for 29 years  and this looks as interesting as cloud computing was in 2010.

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Copyright 2021 US Advanced Computing Infrastructure, Inc.  
Chicago Quantum (SM) is a protected service mark, registration 113562, by the Secretary of State of Illinois.

Disclaimer: 
US Advanced Computing Infrastructure, Inc. does not provide personal investment or financial advice to individuals, or act as personal financial, legal, or institutional investment advisors, or individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment or the use of any particular financial strategy.  All investing, stock forecasts, and investment strategies include the risk of loss for some or even all of your capital.  Before pursuing any financial strategies discussed on this website, you should always consult with a licensed financial advisor.  Put another way, the analysis we provide is for general informational purposes only and does not take into consideration your personal circumstances or other factors that may be important in making decisions.    It should not be considered an individual recommendation or personalized investment advice.  The stocks mentioned may not be suitable for all investors.  As with any investment there is risk.  Past performance is not an indication of future results.  Please do your own due diligence on any stock portfolios highlighted.

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  • Home
  • Contact
  • Research
  • Buy Analysis
  • Buy Project
  • Market Questions & Data
  • Negative BETA Stocks
  • Highest Yielding Stocks
  • Doge-Coin $DOGE
  • Blog
  • Use Cases
  • Platforms
  • Chicago Quantum | Corporate Finance 101
  • 1-hour working session
  • 1-day working session
  • 1-week strategy workshop
  • Analyze up to 3,250 stocks (quantum or classically)
  • 64 Stocks (Quantum & Classical)
  • 64 Stocks (Classical)
  • T-Shirts
  • Custom Algorithm Development
  • Platforms Detail
  • Use Case Detail
  • Market Data
  • Validated tickers