Today is a very green, or risk-on day in the markets. In fact, the last few weeks have seen an upward trajectory in equity prices, due to the building confidence that inflation is tame, and jobs are getting harder to come by. Housing sales and new home construction is down. Finally, the people I know around me say that business is slowing down. That is good for the US Federal Reserve Bank's dual mandate to promote stable prices (inflation coming down) and maximum employment (we are softening). It meant, well before yesterday's Fed FOMC announcement, that interest rates were coming down. So, what am I doing? I am adjusting our quantum algorithm to analyze less risky stocks using heuristics and anecdotal observations that have held true over the past few years. Instead of 3,300 stocks (common) listed on the US exchanges that traded that day...we are now looking at 1,340 stocks that are better bets for serious investors. These aren't the meme stocks, and they avoid the most risky, and anomalous stocks. These stocks are more solid, tend to pay dividends (not all, but many), and have fewer surprises. they tend to trade normally with respect to kurtosis and skewness, although the third and fourth movements don't really matter to most investors. In short, we down-select to a lower risky set of stocks, then optimize the results. We do maintain that a global set of US-listed stocks, coupled with passive ETFs, can help an investor find the diversification, and optimization of risk-reward that they cannot get by reading the paper, listening to Bloomberg (we like to), or even studying individual stocks. We find the patterns and help make a very complex optimization simple and easy to afford for investors. For those who want adventure, we identify both the best and worst stocks, so intrepid investors can invest both long and short...taking advantage of the difference in performance without bearing all the market direction risk. OK, that wasn't very silly. We like to wear, sell, and give away t-shirts that spread our message. However, our message until now is hard to understand, not interesting to 99% of the human race, and, well, boring. So, we don't sell very many t-shirts. We made a very text-heavy design today, and went to buy the shirts in volumes that match our expected demand, and the cost will be more than we could ever hope to sell them for. In fact, I wouldn't even buy the t-shirt for the price quoted. I looked at what is popular now in shirts, and people like patterns, cartoons, anime, and very short slogans like Just Fo Cat. I have not seen a popular shirt with a bibliography or explanation of terms. Never seen a good one that says 7X4Y.sfn3s is a formula used to make investment strategies. Must have missed the t-shirt pun on Fama French. I am about to change the game. Take a risk. Go crazy. We are thinking of using a photograph by an artist we like where we have permission to use it...and write a pithy one-liner. At the bottom, our website in small letters, in case people are wondering and want to learn more. Could even just do a QR code, forget the URL. So, it would look like this: pithy phrase Picture QR code. No service mark, no URL, unless I can work it into a pithy phrase...We accept the challenge. We also have the challenge of sizes. I think M/L/X/2X/3X at a minimum. How do you predict the size of those buying your T-shirt? Please let us know if you would like a T-Shirt once we design it.
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Stock Market BLOGJeffrey CohenPresident and Investment Advisor Representative Archives
November 2024
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