Run for the hills. The VIX is inversely correlated to the US stocks, especially the NASDAQ 100 but also the S&P 500. At the same time, the 10-year US Treasury Note is showing yielding 3.7%, which is also down from around 3.9%, 4%, and 4.25% we have seen recently. There is a flight to cover the 10-year, or to lock in that yield to ride out a potential U.S.-led global macro-economic storm.
At least, that is the narrative. The other narrative is that a large trade came in to buy long-duration US Treasuries last week after the Fed FOMC held rates steady, taking one last ride on falling rates. That trade crowded out other equity trades, and is causing volatility in the Japanese Yen. The result is a rout in US Equities, and Japanese Equities. We read last night of a trade called a volatility control trade that has sold off $64B in U.S. equities since Thursday. Could be a thing...we run a volatility controlled, high beta model and it was down significantly on Friday. So, what do we see: US Equity Futures are down almost 5% this morning - S&P 500 down 3.44% - NASDAQ 100 down 4.7% - Russell 2000 down 4.25% VIX up US Treasuries up Gold down Oil down Bitcoin down significantly Japanese Yen up (against the US Dollar) Grains are down, mostly. Metals are down, livestock is down, and energy is down. I would guess that the 'buy the dip' forces are gathering to pick up the pieces after today's storm. Good luck to all. Our Chicago Quantum Net Score top pick is down again in pre-market. This is an aggressive sell-off of risk in the markets.
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Stock Market BLOGJeffrey CohenPresident and Investment Advisor Representative Archives
November 2024
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