Republic of China / Taiwan Environment
Observations around the main island of Taiwan that impact the South China Sea
This is where we share our open source-based analysis and thinking.
Jeffrey Cohen, President US Advanced Computing Infrastructure, Inc.
Jeffrey Cohen, President US Advanced Computing Infrastructure, Inc.
We started our analysis in late May 2025. The big news is no longer new news.
Net-Net: China has been circumnavigating the Taiwan mainland island with both ships and aircraft (manned and unmanned) since the end of 2024, and in 2025 has been forward deploying their two aircraft carriers past the line of Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines into the Western Pacific. This is not a blockade action, but a projection of power well past the first island chain (which includes Taiwan) and closes the previously open "backdoor" on US or Canadian support in case of active conflict.
In our opinion, both the circumnavigation and the forward deployment puts Taiwan within an area of operational control of the People's Republic of China. Put another way, if you thought of Taiwan as having a 'back door,' then that door is now closed by two aircraft carriers and numerous manned and unmanned air and sea assets. A blockade of the island is now in the realm of possibility, and causes Taiwan's allies to fight a first naval action to secure access before directly supporting the island. Putting it bluntly, China PLAN is beginning to operate (early stages) as a Blue Water Navy.
We tie this into additional analysis we performed using ESA Sentinel-2 satellite imagery that shows the build-up in the South China Sea has dramatically slowed by the PRC (although not be Vietnam), as they invest their resources in naval assets. This is about force deployment / projection approaching Alaska, Hawaii and California. China has moved beyond defending the homeland (e.g., Hainan Island) and the coast.
What do we know:
AP News: June 11, 2025: Chinese aircraft carrier strike groups around the Liaoning and Shandong are operating together in the Pacific Ocean, east of Japan and the Philippines, and approaching the second-island chain. They passed by the island of Iwo Jima (yes, the one from WWII). This is a first time event.
We know that these two aircraft carriers and support ships (or carrier groups) operate on fossil fuels, and will need to keep their logistics clear and functional (e.g., keep oilers in the vicinity of the operations, and flow fuel supplies to the carrier groups past Japan, ROC and the Philippines, or contract with other allied naval forces like Indonesia and Russia to supply them.
China's third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, is expected to become operational in 2025 as it completes final sea trials. It is also a conventionally fueled carrier, and likely will have its own carrier strike group. Three carrier strike groups starts to 'spread the wealth around' regarding capabilities to 'shut the back door' on Taiwan via a comprehensive naval and aerial blockade for as long as desired, while still engaging hostile forces far from home (or at least past the first island chain).
According to Al Jazeera: June 10, 2025, the Shandong CSG contains four additional ships. They were operating near Okinatori, Japan which is an atoll (underwater coral reef with man-made reclamation structures owned and operated by Japan). Okinatori is ~750 nautical miles from Guam.
According to APNews: June 12, 2025 reporting by Mari Yamaguchi and David Rising, we see some great images of both the Shandong and the Liaoning carriers, and some of their support ships. Due to copyright restrictions, we cannot show those photos, but we can share the link. There were sightings of a Chinese J-15 fighter from the Shandong.
Net-Net: China has been circumnavigating the Taiwan mainland island with both ships and aircraft (manned and unmanned) since the end of 2024, and in 2025 has been forward deploying their two aircraft carriers past the line of Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines into the Western Pacific. This is not a blockade action, but a projection of power well past the first island chain (which includes Taiwan) and closes the previously open "backdoor" on US or Canadian support in case of active conflict.
In our opinion, both the circumnavigation and the forward deployment puts Taiwan within an area of operational control of the People's Republic of China. Put another way, if you thought of Taiwan as having a 'back door,' then that door is now closed by two aircraft carriers and numerous manned and unmanned air and sea assets. A blockade of the island is now in the realm of possibility, and causes Taiwan's allies to fight a first naval action to secure access before directly supporting the island. Putting it bluntly, China PLAN is beginning to operate (early stages) as a Blue Water Navy.
We tie this into additional analysis we performed using ESA Sentinel-2 satellite imagery that shows the build-up in the South China Sea has dramatically slowed by the PRC (although not be Vietnam), as they invest their resources in naval assets. This is about force deployment / projection approaching Alaska, Hawaii and California. China has moved beyond defending the homeland (e.g., Hainan Island) and the coast.
What do we know:
AP News: June 11, 2025: Chinese aircraft carrier strike groups around the Liaoning and Shandong are operating together in the Pacific Ocean, east of Japan and the Philippines, and approaching the second-island chain. They passed by the island of Iwo Jima (yes, the one from WWII). This is a first time event.
We know that these two aircraft carriers and support ships (or carrier groups) operate on fossil fuels, and will need to keep their logistics clear and functional (e.g., keep oilers in the vicinity of the operations, and flow fuel supplies to the carrier groups past Japan, ROC and the Philippines, or contract with other allied naval forces like Indonesia and Russia to supply them.
China's third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, is expected to become operational in 2025 as it completes final sea trials. It is also a conventionally fueled carrier, and likely will have its own carrier strike group. Three carrier strike groups starts to 'spread the wealth around' regarding capabilities to 'shut the back door' on Taiwan via a comprehensive naval and aerial blockade for as long as desired, while still engaging hostile forces far from home (or at least past the first island chain).
According to Al Jazeera: June 10, 2025, the Shandong CSG contains four additional ships. They were operating near Okinatori, Japan which is an atoll (underwater coral reef with man-made reclamation structures owned and operated by Japan). Okinatori is ~750 nautical miles from Guam.
According to APNews: June 12, 2025 reporting by Mari Yamaguchi and David Rising, we see some great images of both the Shandong and the Liaoning carriers, and some of their support ships. Due to copyright restrictions, we cannot show those photos, but we can share the link. There were sightings of a Chinese J-15 fighter from the Shandong.