Iran Importation of Afghan Opium in 2024
This page is focused on the question of whether Iran is importing opium-based substances from countries such as Afghanistan, the Golden Crescent, and Myanmar, and whether those imports are for domestic consumptions or refining and export.
The research is performed using open source intelligence and research found in April 2024.
The research is performed using open source intelligence and research found in April 2024.
Afghanistan dramatically reduced poppy flower production in 2023
According to the U.N. report from November 2023, and confirmed by ALCIS satellite imagery analysis, Afghanistan has reduced poppy, and opium production by 95% from 2022 to 2023, and that level of reduction is being sustained. To put it into context, opium production fell from 6,200 tons (at least what was counted in a year), to 333 tons in 2023 according to the Afghanistan opium survey 2023 by the UNODC.
The price of poppy juice is up 500% according to a February 2024 article in El Pais, and likely the price of opium-based narcotics that use it as a key ingredient are up even more due to the Taliban clerical government effectively eliminating the Afghan market in poppy and opium.
There are many sources to show the reduction in production in Afghanistan (which was producing 80% of the world's opium), and a few sources showing countries like Myanmar are increasing production, but not nearly enough to replace the prior level of production. In short, there is a massive supply shock in opium, and few countries can step in to fill that gap.
What does this mean for Iran?
The price of poppy juice is up 500% according to a February 2024 article in El Pais, and likely the price of opium-based narcotics that use it as a key ingredient are up even more due to the Taliban clerical government effectively eliminating the Afghan market in poppy and opium.
There are many sources to show the reduction in production in Afghanistan (which was producing 80% of the world's opium), and a few sources showing countries like Myanmar are increasing production, but not nearly enough to replace the prior level of production. In short, there is a massive supply shock in opium, and few countries can step in to fill that gap.
What does this mean for Iran?
Iran has a long history of significant addiction to opium
Iran has a long history of using poppy-based opium, heroin and other illegal narcotics that stretches back to the time of Alexander the Great. Opium usage is very common in Iran, and had widespread medical usage, although the level of usage and addiction leads the world (anywhere from 5.4% of persons age 15 - 64 are regular users according to one study, and 20% of adults are regular users in another study.)
However, the drug use and addiction data from Iran is dated and often repeated. It repeats findings from a 2011 study by the Iranian National Mental Health Survey that there are 3 million users of illegal drug users (used in the past 12 months) and the addiction rate is around 2.4% of the total population. The 3 million and 3% statistics have been used from Council of Foreign Relations reports in 2006 to more modern reports. It seems that three million users is the last figure that was calculated from an extensive survey, and more recent 'top up' data collection has corroborated or supported that statistic.
What we believe to be true is that while Afghan poppy production was high before the Taliban clerical government assumed power, the addiction rate had continued to rise to well over 10% of the adult population, with high-school and college students using at a rate of around 6%. Certain populations, based on location, socio-economic status, or job status use more or less. Aggressive illegal narcotics that are stronger than opium are used frequently by the younger generations (crack, glass or heroin), and women are using sedatives more frequently.
Given the original scope of this research, we will publish a summary of reports we read. Iran is a nation battling with a history of opioid abuse.
However, the drug use and addiction data from Iran is dated and often repeated. It repeats findings from a 2011 study by the Iranian National Mental Health Survey that there are 3 million users of illegal drug users (used in the past 12 months) and the addiction rate is around 2.4% of the total population. The 3 million and 3% statistics have been used from Council of Foreign Relations reports in 2006 to more modern reports. It seems that three million users is the last figure that was calculated from an extensive survey, and more recent 'top up' data collection has corroborated or supported that statistic.
What we believe to be true is that while Afghan poppy production was high before the Taliban clerical government assumed power, the addiction rate had continued to rise to well over 10% of the adult population, with high-school and college students using at a rate of around 6%. Certain populations, based on location, socio-economic status, or job status use more or less. Aggressive illegal narcotics that are stronger than opium are used frequently by the younger generations (crack, glass or heroin), and women are using sedatives more frequently.
Given the original scope of this research, we will publish a summary of reports we read. Iran is a nation battling with a history of opioid abuse.
Here are some findings on Iranian drug abuse going back to 1950.
We read a short piece by Michael Rubin, September 1, 2022, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, that suggests that the Clerical leadership took a strong, aggressive, and sometimes fatal stance to end drug addiction. The clerical leadership may have used the presence of Iranian drug abuse to justify their accession to power. He also claims that more recently, in the 2020s, the Iranian drug abuse problem has increased in the youth population.
Iran's anti-narcotics agency, led by Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, in November 2009, quoted 930,000 people were addicted to heroin and opium, with 130,000 new addicts per year, and 500,000 people treated and rehabilitated over a six-year period. One way this is done is to aggressively fight the drug smuggling business, which is punishable by death. In 2009, the government indicated that 3,700 Iranian security personnel have been killed fighting their drug smugglers.
Another statistic is that 42% of the world's opium was consumed within Iran.
According to Radio Farda, July 15, 2009, Iranians use more than two metrics tons of narcotic drugs per day. In 2018, Iran's interior minister said 3% of the country's population is addicted to drugs, mostly heroin. When looking at adults aged 15-64, that percentage is 5.4%. At this time, 3,815 Iranian law enforcement personnel had lost their lives, and another 12,000+ wounded by Iran's 40 year war on drugs. A full 70% of prisoners in Iran were criminals sentenced for drug-related offences, according to Nasser Aslani, Deputy head of Iran's Presidential Office for Fighting Narcotics. This data shows a shift from opium to heroin in addiction statistics, which could mean that usage has shifted. We also see new mentions (other sources) that point to increasing use of marijuana, crystal methamphetamines, and other opium derivatives that are more heavily refined and concentrated.
Some specific reports show significantly higher opium addiction percentages among specific populations.
Truck Drivers (2001 - 2003) have 26.5% addiction (795 of 3000), but only 4.6% saw a positive ACON Labs morphine urine strip test. Mean age 40, all males. There were statistically significant health differences between addicts and non-addicts, with 16x risk of ischemic heart disease and pulmonary disease in addicts.
Source: Ghodratollah Rajabizade, Mohammad Arash Ramezani and Mohammad Reza Shakibi, 2004. Prevalence of Opium Addiction in Iranian Drivers 2001-2003. Journal of Medical Sciences, 4: 210-213.
In March & April 2001, in Zahedan, Iran, a study on 480 patients suffering from pain and receiving treatment in medical clinics were studied with a survey-based data collection project. In total, 28.5% of these majority female adult patients use opioids, but the main correlations to drug use were not the chronic duration of pain, but other socio-economic factors. In 80% of the cases, opiod drug use starts with pain treatment, but continues based on five factors:
Data from the 1974 Fordham Law Review discusses the history of opium abuse in Iran (before the Islamic Republic was formed), and suggests it was spread widely for a variety of reasons. This is considered to be a local form of addition for persians for hundreds of years and was increased with the introduction of arabic and western influences in the 20th century.
Going back even further into history, we just read that opium may have come to Iran with Alexander the Great.
We read a short article from 2021 Society for the Study of Addiction that a misconception was being spread that opium consumption protected Iranians from Covid 19, when in fact the opposite was true. This is a disappointing bit of misinformation spread within Iran because it created a new set of addicts in 2020.
Iran used to be the number two exporter of opium globally, behind China. We are not reading that today. According to a September 7, 1951 CIA Information Report (sanitized), the estimated rate of opium addiction in Iran was 2.5 million people out of a total population of 17.0 million, or 14.7%. This is a snapshot of time, and suggests that Iran is the second largest illicit supplier of opium to the world, behind China. At that time, the government had monopolistic control over domestic raw opium trade, and controlled exports through government marketing agreements. At this time in Iran, opium smoking has been made illegal two years prior, in 1949, with up to imprisonment and heavy fines. At this time, opium export was a wealth building enterprise controlled by a small group. Exporting opium to New York yielding a 17x profit. Children were given a daily dose of opium to keep them from crying while the parents were working, ensuring that those children displayed severe addition symptoms upon adolescence.
We just skimmed a 2023 article about a 2022 study conducted in Tehran, Iran that finds a correlation between opium addiction and back and neck pain, due to the position in which people smoke. The explanation is that addicts hurt their back and neck by leaning forward when smoking opium for hours at a time.
In 2015, a study from the Journal of Substance Use, Volume 22, 2017, Issue 1, showed that drug abuse in Iranian youth has been falling during the past 30 years to the current levels. Those current levels are that opium abuse in Iranian high school and college students (n=52,173 samples) was 6.0% (95% confidence interval was 5.0% to 7.0%). The data was skewed higher by older students (addiction increased from high school to college age).
In a 1978 study, a medico-social survey in a rural population in the northern part of Iran (1978 publication), 111,000 addicts were registered although 691,000 addicts existed, suggesting a registration rate of 16%, or 1/6. If applied broadly to the national numbers, 3 million registered addicts could really be 18 million addicts of a nation of around 80 million people.
For a short anecdote, NBC News published a story September 23, 2005, that suggested that opium is so inexpensive that the youth are using it in place of drinking beer or other recreational activities. They also suggested that when the earthquake damaged the city of Bam in 2003, methadone was rushed to the scene to treat heroin and opium addicts, "for the 20 percent or more of the population believed to be addicted."
The same NBC article suggests a 'conspiracy theory' that the Iranian government could be implementing drug addiction as a policy of the state. Finally, Mokri, the Director of the National Center for Addiction Studies, discussed functioning addicts as potentially increasing drug 'involvement' to 20% of the population. The article talks about the types of opium used:
One meta-study in 2022 by Parham Mardi, Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran reviewed other opium studies found that opium dependence doubled the odds of being diagnosed with a stroke. It also leads to an elevated mortality due to stroke. Cigarette smoking is also a risk factor for strokes, and smoking and opioid use are linked. This is a new finding, and more research is required.
A study from 2022 discusses why Iran maintains its drug treatment capability during times of stress (sanctions, Covid 19, inflation, etc):
The prevalence of opium, residual opium juice (shireh), crystal methamphetamine, hashish, and heroin use in Iran is 150, 660, 590, 470, and 350 per 100 000 population, respectively according to one study in 2013, here:
Nikfarjam A, Shokoohi M, Shahesmaeili A, et al. National population size estimation of illicit drug users through the network scale-up method in 2013 in Iran. Int J Drug Policy. 2016;31:147 152.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugpo.2016.01.013 Crossref, Medline, Google Scholar
An important 2015 study, which sampled 1,200 individuals in all 31 provinces of Iran, for a total sample of n = 36,600 individuals 15 years or older, with 50% men and 50% women. The instrument used was the ASSIST or Alcohol, Smoking, Substance Involvement Screening Test. In total, 14.1% used drugs or alcohol on a regular basis:
We read a short piece by Michael Rubin, September 1, 2022, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, that suggests that the Clerical leadership took a strong, aggressive, and sometimes fatal stance to end drug addiction. The clerical leadership may have used the presence of Iranian drug abuse to justify their accession to power. He also claims that more recently, in the 2020s, the Iranian drug abuse problem has increased in the youth population.
Iran's anti-narcotics agency, led by Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, in November 2009, quoted 930,000 people were addicted to heroin and opium, with 130,000 new addicts per year, and 500,000 people treated and rehabilitated over a six-year period. One way this is done is to aggressively fight the drug smuggling business, which is punishable by death. In 2009, the government indicated that 3,700 Iranian security personnel have been killed fighting their drug smugglers.
Another statistic is that 42% of the world's opium was consumed within Iran.
According to Radio Farda, July 15, 2009, Iranians use more than two metrics tons of narcotic drugs per day. In 2018, Iran's interior minister said 3% of the country's population is addicted to drugs, mostly heroin. When looking at adults aged 15-64, that percentage is 5.4%. At this time, 3,815 Iranian law enforcement personnel had lost their lives, and another 12,000+ wounded by Iran's 40 year war on drugs. A full 70% of prisoners in Iran were criminals sentenced for drug-related offences, according to Nasser Aslani, Deputy head of Iran's Presidential Office for Fighting Narcotics. This data shows a shift from opium to heroin in addiction statistics, which could mean that usage has shifted. We also see new mentions (other sources) that point to increasing use of marijuana, crystal methamphetamines, and other opium derivatives that are more heavily refined and concentrated.
Some specific reports show significantly higher opium addiction percentages among specific populations.
Truck Drivers (2001 - 2003) have 26.5% addiction (795 of 3000), but only 4.6% saw a positive ACON Labs morphine urine strip test. Mean age 40, all males. There were statistically significant health differences between addicts and non-addicts, with 16x risk of ischemic heart disease and pulmonary disease in addicts.
- High School Students 2.1%
- Nursing students 9%
- Offspring of addicts: 20% addiction
Source: Ghodratollah Rajabizade, Mohammad Arash Ramezani and Mohammad Reza Shakibi, 2004. Prevalence of Opium Addiction in Iranian Drivers 2001-2003. Journal of Medical Sciences, 4: 210-213.
In March & April 2001, in Zahedan, Iran, a study on 480 patients suffering from pain and receiving treatment in medical clinics were studied with a survey-based data collection project. In total, 28.5% of these majority female adult patients use opioids, but the main correlations to drug use were not the chronic duration of pain, but other socio-economic factors. In 80% of the cases, opiod drug use starts with pain treatment, but continues based on five factors:
- Previous opioid use by friends
- Occupation
- Cigarette smoking
- Neuropsychiatric consultation
- Death of a spouse
Data from the 1974 Fordham Law Review discusses the history of opium abuse in Iran (before the Islamic Republic was formed), and suggests it was spread widely for a variety of reasons. This is considered to be a local form of addition for persians for hundreds of years and was increased with the introduction of arabic and western influences in the 20th century.
Going back even further into history, we just read that opium may have come to Iran with Alexander the Great.
We read a short article from 2021 Society for the Study of Addiction that a misconception was being spread that opium consumption protected Iranians from Covid 19, when in fact the opposite was true. This is a disappointing bit of misinformation spread within Iran because it created a new set of addicts in 2020.
Iran used to be the number two exporter of opium globally, behind China. We are not reading that today. According to a September 7, 1951 CIA Information Report (sanitized), the estimated rate of opium addiction in Iran was 2.5 million people out of a total population of 17.0 million, or 14.7%. This is a snapshot of time, and suggests that Iran is the second largest illicit supplier of opium to the world, behind China. At that time, the government had monopolistic control over domestic raw opium trade, and controlled exports through government marketing agreements. At this time in Iran, opium smoking has been made illegal two years prior, in 1949, with up to imprisonment and heavy fines. At this time, opium export was a wealth building enterprise controlled by a small group. Exporting opium to New York yielding a 17x profit. Children were given a daily dose of opium to keep them from crying while the parents were working, ensuring that those children displayed severe addition symptoms upon adolescence.
We just skimmed a 2023 article about a 2022 study conducted in Tehran, Iran that finds a correlation between opium addiction and back and neck pain, due to the position in which people smoke. The explanation is that addicts hurt their back and neck by leaning forward when smoking opium for hours at a time.
In 2015, a study from the Journal of Substance Use, Volume 22, 2017, Issue 1, showed that drug abuse in Iranian youth has been falling during the past 30 years to the current levels. Those current levels are that opium abuse in Iranian high school and college students (n=52,173 samples) was 6.0% (95% confidence interval was 5.0% to 7.0%). The data was skewed higher by older students (addiction increased from high school to college age).
In a 1978 study, a medico-social survey in a rural population in the northern part of Iran (1978 publication), 111,000 addicts were registered although 691,000 addicts existed, suggesting a registration rate of 16%, or 1/6. If applied broadly to the national numbers, 3 million registered addicts could really be 18 million addicts of a nation of around 80 million people.
For a short anecdote, NBC News published a story September 23, 2005, that suggested that opium is so inexpensive that the youth are using it in place of drinking beer or other recreational activities. They also suggested that when the earthquake damaged the city of Bam in 2003, methadone was rushed to the scene to treat heroin and opium addicts, "for the 20 percent or more of the population believed to be addicted."
The same NBC article suggests a 'conspiracy theory' that the Iranian government could be implementing drug addiction as a policy of the state. Finally, Mokri, the Director of the National Center for Addiction Studies, discussed functioning addicts as potentially increasing drug 'involvement' to 20% of the population. The article talks about the types of opium used:
- Opium - it's for old people
- Opium residue (dross or shireh) - is for poor, illiterate, rural migrants
- Heroin - for the young adults in their 20s and 30s
- Crack and glass (methamphetamine) - for the younger teens and adults in early 20s.
- Hashish - not sure who uses hash (cannabis oil)
One meta-study in 2022 by Parham Mardi, Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran reviewed other opium studies found that opium dependence doubled the odds of being diagnosed with a stroke. It also leads to an elevated mortality due to stroke. Cigarette smoking is also a risk factor for strokes, and smoking and opioid use are linked. This is a new finding, and more research is required.
A study from 2022 discusses why Iran maintains its drug treatment capability during times of stress (sanctions, Covid 19, inflation, etc):
- Large network of service providers
- Low cost for services
- Less harm
- Flexible take-home dosage and opioid drug delivery (fast and easy to get methodone and other opioids in treatment).
The prevalence of opium, residual opium juice (shireh), crystal methamphetamine, hashish, and heroin use in Iran is 150, 660, 590, 470, and 350 per 100 000 population, respectively according to one study in 2013, here:
Nikfarjam A, Shokoohi M, Shahesmaeili A, et al. National population size estimation of illicit drug users through the network scale-up method in 2013 in Iran. Int J Drug Policy. 2016;31:147 152.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugpo.2016.01.013 Crossref, Medline, Google Scholar
An important 2015 study, which sampled 1,200 individuals in all 31 provinces of Iran, for a total sample of n = 36,600 individuals 15 years or older, with 50% men and 50% women. The instrument used was the ASSIST or Alcohol, Smoking, Substance Involvement Screening Test. In total, 14.1% used drugs or alcohol on a regular basis:
- Opium: 4.6%
- Cannabis 0.4%
- Amphetamine Stimulants 6.1%
- Alcoholic beverages 2.6%
- Men used more drugs except sedatives, which women used more. Kerman province used the most, and Qom used the least.
Iran's War on Drugs
Iran executed their own war on drugs and zero tolerance policy, similar to that of the United States. It increased incarceration of drug users, implemented shaming and very strict punishment on drug abusers, and executed those in the drug trade or smuggling trade. At one point not that long ago, Iranian drug criminals made up 20% of its entire prison population, again with drug dealers or smugglers executed. They had expended significant resources in drug interdiction along their ~1,000 mile border with Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Implications for Iran
Iran has a drug use problem that was growing and fairly benign until 2023. The number of addicts to poppy-based opium illegal narcotics was elevated and growing, and the cost of opium was so inexpensive during the US and NATO intervention in Afghanistan that it was cheaper than beer.
Enter 2023 and 2024 and now Iran may have a different problem. Withdrawal, treatment and drug cost inflation.
We read an Iranian presentation to UNDOC from March 2024 that does not explicitly discuss the shift in Afghan production. It sticks to the idea that law enforcement is doing what it can to stop drugs from entering into and circulating within Iran. It illustrated a decline in drug seizures in all areas except morphine (diversion from medical?) and methamphetamine (stimulant), Also elevated is hashish (compressed cannabis) and at least in the U.S. cannabis wholesale prices are significantly lower due to legalization in multiple states.
At this point, drug seizure data could indicate substitution taking place, and give data supporting Iranian illicit narcotic drug demand elasticity curves (interesting for economists).
The data we don't have is whether addiction levels have changed given the price increase and Afghan supply cut.
Enter 2023 and 2024 and now Iran may have a different problem. Withdrawal, treatment and drug cost inflation.
We read an Iranian presentation to UNDOC from March 2024 that does not explicitly discuss the shift in Afghan production. It sticks to the idea that law enforcement is doing what it can to stop drugs from entering into and circulating within Iran. It illustrated a decline in drug seizures in all areas except morphine (diversion from medical?) and methamphetamine (stimulant), Also elevated is hashish (compressed cannabis) and at least in the U.S. cannabis wholesale prices are significantly lower due to legalization in multiple states.
At this point, drug seizure data could indicate substitution taking place, and give data supporting Iranian illicit narcotic drug demand elasticity curves (interesting for economists).
The data we don't have is whether addiction levels have changed given the price increase and Afghan supply cut.
Foreign Policy Implications
Not sure there are any, other than the Iranian population is going through a collective state of withdrawal due to the rising price and declining availability of opium and opium-based drugs.
Hypothesis 1: Could civilian population unrest be causing the government to become more militant. Wins on the battlefield and enemies at the gate make for good publicity.
Hypothesis 2: The government is losing control over its population if/as it weans itself off addiction.
Hypothesis 3: The government is joining its clerical brothers in Afghanistan in eliminating addiction, and this has no impact on foreign policy, but could explain a hard-line political stance taken.
Hypothesis 1: Could civilian population unrest be causing the government to become more militant. Wins on the battlefield and enemies at the gate make for good publicity.
Hypothesis 2: The government is losing control over its population if/as it weans itself off addiction.
Hypothesis 3: The government is joining its clerical brothers in Afghanistan in eliminating addiction, and this has no impact on foreign policy, but could explain a hard-line political stance taken.
Production Data
According to Al Jazeera on December 12, 2023, Afghanistan has reduced opium cultivation (by land) by 95%, from 233,000 hectares in late 2022 to 10,800 in 2023.This is due to a drug ban by the Taliban in 2022. Poppy and opium production has increased in countries like Myanmar (2022 cultivation rose from 40,100 hectares to 47,000 hectares vs. a peak of 58,000 hectares in 2013). The article suggests research into Laos and Thailand to see if they have increased production, along with our own hypothesis that China and Pakistan could also be increasing cultivation (the extended Golden Triangle.)
Afghanistan has long been a major producer and exporter of opium. It appears that during the Afghan civil war, the Taliban supported the production and export of Opium to fund its operations. This led Afghanistan to grow its opium production, and create significant wealth in the process. Since early 2023, after the last full harvest cycle in 2022, the Taliban has cracked down on opium production and the cycle appears to be broken. Opium production is shifting to other SE Asian countries, but not equally and we posit a steep decline in production levels.
Afghanistan has long been a major producer and exporter of opium. It appears that during the Afghan civil war, the Taliban supported the production and export of Opium to fund its operations. This led Afghanistan to grow its opium production, and create significant wealth in the process. Since early 2023, after the last full harvest cycle in 2022, the Taliban has cracked down on opium production and the cycle appears to be broken. Opium production is shifting to other SE Asian countries, but not equally and we posit a steep decline in production levels.
Existing reporting on production and consumption has not been updated
In summary, most of the initial data we reviewed on opium production and consumption reflected the reality on the ground before the 2023 clamp-down on opium production in Afghanistan. A casual search would lead a reader to believe that opium is still cheap and plentiful, and that Iran has three million opioid addicts.
It took a while to figure out that opium production has undergone a massive structural change and that Iran had recently seen much higher levels of drug addiction and usage.
It took a while to figure out that opium production has undergone a massive structural change and that Iran had recently seen much higher levels of drug addiction and usage.
In conclusion...
The supply disruption in Afghanistan of poppy will have a significant impact on Iranian poppy consumption. We are not sure whether this has foreign policy implications, or even explanatory power over why Iran has attacked Israel and the West. However, it is something to watch. Iran could 'get it right' and end drug abuse in their country during this supply shock as opposed to seeing drug use substitution into cannabis and synthetics.
Israel could help Iran in this domestic challenge, which could pave the way towards full diplomatic relations between the countries and an end to open and shadow hostilities. A peaceful Iran could then expand their oil production and export (as evidenced in the pages below), build incredible wealth, and create more satisfying jobs and lives for their citizens.
Israel could help Iran in this domestic challenge, which could pave the way towards full diplomatic relations between the countries and an end to open and shadow hostilities. A peaceful Iran could then expand their oil production and export (as evidenced in the pages below), build incredible wealth, and create more satisfying jobs and lives for their citizens.