Iran Overview
Our firm has been performing research into Iran and their influence on global energy markets to determine whether Iran's oil and gas export industry had an 'Achilles Heel' in light of Iran's multi-channel military attack on Israel. We are trying to predict the future of the (undeclared) war between Iran and Israel.
We are available for consultation to extend our research, or to conduct research services on your behalf. We are selective in who we serve, but please don't let that stop you from reaching out to us. We will engage and vet all serious inquiries.
We are registered to do business with all agencies of the U.S. Federal Government.
We are available for consultation to extend our research, or to conduct research services on your behalf. We are selective in who we serve, but please don't let that stop you from reaching out to us. We will engage and vet all serious inquiries.
We are registered to do business with all agencies of the U.S. Federal Government.
What we know
We know very little about Iran from first-hand observation:
- We closely knew two children of immigrants to the United States from Iran who emigrated around the time of the formation of the Islamic Republic of Iran. They both loved America and could not believe their homeland changed the way it did. They believed that the 'typical' Iranian would welcome America as a friend if only their government would allow it.
Everything else we think we know about Iran we learned via open source research.
- We closely knew two children of immigrants to the United States from Iran who emigrated around the time of the formation of the Islamic Republic of Iran. They both loved America and could not believe their homeland changed the way it did. They believed that the 'typical' Iranian would welcome America as a friend if only their government would allow it.
Everything else we think we know about Iran we learned via open source research.
What we heard
On April 20, 2024, we spoke with an American immigrant (legal) from Afghanistan. He worked for the Afghan National Army (ANA), and told us that he left from Hamid Karzai International Airport on or around August 30, 2021. He is now living close to Washington DC in Virginia and works as a rideshare driver. That is how we met him and that is when he told us his story.
After he worked for the ANA for six years he used his military ID to emigrate to the United States leaving behind his family and everything but the clothes on his back. He said he was lucky to be working near the airport on those last, fateful days. He shares a selfie video that looked familiar to those I saw on CNN. He was shy in talking about his military service over those six years, sharing zero specifics or facts. He said his service was quiet and the Taliban were not looking for revenge against his father (also in the military) nor his wife and daughter.
He perked up when I told him that the CIA Factbook lists Iran as having per-capita consumption of alcohol of zero. He said two things that we publish because they could change our understanding of the situation in Iran.
1. He estimates fifty percent (50%) of the youth in Iran (young adults) consume alcohol. It is a common, home-based activity. He personally observed parties in people's homes, patios and in private gatherings.
2. He estimated that ninety percent (90%) of the adult to elderly Iranian male population consumes opium-based drugs. He suggested the drugs were imported from Afghanistan (they own the top, top, top of the opium market). Afghans smuggle opium over the border in large trucks (up to 2-tons) with 5+ armed men who cross the Iranian border. They give those drugs to wholesalers and distributors. They are not selling to the 'street' but to the private distribution systems. He was focused on the violence and risk faced by the smugglers, because to be captured with more than 100g results in a death sentence.
Our research questions are 1) is this true, and 2) what are the foreign policy implications.
Potential Foreign Policy Implications:
A. Is Iran fighting a war on drugs? Could this create common ground with Western countries?
B. Are the Iranian people passively accepting their situation and slipping into addiction?
D. Has the opium trade created permanent governance constraints and 'silent partners?'
E. Is a theocratic, clerical government a logical model in Iran and Afghanistan to control corruption?
F. If true that Afghanistan is producing significant amounts of opium, do they pose a clear and present danger to Western democracies?
G. If not true and Afghanistan has 'won' their war on drugs, does that change their attractiveness to Western diplomacy?
After he worked for the ANA for six years he used his military ID to emigrate to the United States leaving behind his family and everything but the clothes on his back. He said he was lucky to be working near the airport on those last, fateful days. He shares a selfie video that looked familiar to those I saw on CNN. He was shy in talking about his military service over those six years, sharing zero specifics or facts. He said his service was quiet and the Taliban were not looking for revenge against his father (also in the military) nor his wife and daughter.
He perked up when I told him that the CIA Factbook lists Iran as having per-capita consumption of alcohol of zero. He said two things that we publish because they could change our understanding of the situation in Iran.
1. He estimates fifty percent (50%) of the youth in Iran (young adults) consume alcohol. It is a common, home-based activity. He personally observed parties in people's homes, patios and in private gatherings.
2. He estimated that ninety percent (90%) of the adult to elderly Iranian male population consumes opium-based drugs. He suggested the drugs were imported from Afghanistan (they own the top, top, top of the opium market). Afghans smuggle opium over the border in large trucks (up to 2-tons) with 5+ armed men who cross the Iranian border. They give those drugs to wholesalers and distributors. They are not selling to the 'street' but to the private distribution systems. He was focused on the violence and risk faced by the smugglers, because to be captured with more than 100g results in a death sentence.
Our research questions are 1) is this true, and 2) what are the foreign policy implications.
Potential Foreign Policy Implications:
A. Is Iran fighting a war on drugs? Could this create common ground with Western countries?
B. Are the Iranian people passively accepting their situation and slipping into addiction?
D. Has the opium trade created permanent governance constraints and 'silent partners?'
E. Is a theocratic, clerical government a logical model in Iran and Afghanistan to control corruption?
F. If true that Afghanistan is producing significant amounts of opium, do they pose a clear and present danger to Western democracies?
G. If not true and Afghanistan has 'won' their war on drugs, does that change their attractiveness to Western diplomacy?
What we now think
Iran has the ability to produce and export significantly more energy than it does today. The energy infrastructure in the country and largely redundant, and is significantly constrained by sanctions. If and when those sanctions are lifted, Iran could become a significantly larger player on the global energy stage.
Iran has a very large and significant drug abuse problem that the current, clerical government has not been able to address and has largely under-reported. However, the reduction in opium supply due to Afghanistan's clerical government action has most likely created a large problem with domestic populations of drug users and addicts within Iran who can no longer afford their habit.
Iran has a very large and significant drug abuse problem that the current, clerical government has not been able to address and has largely under-reported. However, the reduction in opium supply due to Afghanistan's clerical government action has most likely created a large problem with domestic populations of drug users and addicts within Iran who can no longer afford their habit.
What we researched and wrote
We have preliminary answers to the two question that prompted this work in Mid-April 2024.
- Israel should work to establish full diplomatic relations with Iran and work together to maintain peace in the Middle East. Israel could potentially use its research capabilities to help Iran address its domestic drug abuse problem. Israel and Iran both, in our opinion, would see significant support from Middle East energy importing nations such as China, India, Japan, South Korea and Taipei and the whole of the European Union for successful diplomacy. This could be the dawn of a new era of peace for Israel and Iran.
- Afghanistan was a significant and expanding cultivator and exporter of poppy-based products until early 2023, when the new government (we read) reduced cultivation acreage by 95% (according to a U.N. report). We cannot find any open source information on changes in iranian drug consumption except an official Iranian governmental presentation to the UNDOC that indicates an increase in police seizures in cannabis-based and synthetic stimulants. There are no new statistics on Iranian drug user populations, although we expect that if we read Persian and had access to their people's social media, it would be clear in about 5 minutes.
A few Central Intelligence Agency (non-classified) source citations:
- Office of Global Issues, or OGI
- Chief, Strategic Facilities Branch
- Strategic Resources Division
- Central Intelligence Agency
- Directorate of Intelligence
- Khark Island: Iran's Principal Oil Export Terminal, A Reference Aid, Sanitized Copy 02/02/2010
- Central Intelligence Agency
- Directorate of Intelligence
- Alternatives to Khark: Iplications of New Iranian Facilities to Export Oil
- An Intelligence Assessent
- July 16, 2012, Sanitized Copy.
- Office of Near Eastern and South Asian (NESA) Analysis
- Office of Global Issues
- Chief, Persian Gulf Division, NESA
- Information available as of March 4, 1986 was used in the report.