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Sabina Shoal, Second Thomas Shoal to Half Moon Shoal, West of Palawan, Spratly Islands

Picture
Updated: August 26, 2024
​In the West Philippine Sea, there is a large grouping of reefs south and east of China-occupied Mischief Reef (one of their three primary military islands, located in the southeast in the Spratlys). These islands hug the central and southern coast of Palawan, Philippines.


The key take away is that these are the islands closest to the Philippines and every one is submerged and undeveloped, preserved in their natural state, according to the Google Earth satellite photos we use. This implies a lack of power projection by the Philippines into the South China Seas, with 'defense' performed from their mainland and Palawan.
Immediately south and east of Mischief Reef are many reefs. We analyze them on one webpage as they are mostly undeveloped.

Southwest of Mischief Reef is Alicia Annie Reef which is underwater and undeveloped.

​Second Thomas Shoal a.k.a., Ayungin Shoal in Filipino, Rén'ài Jiāo in Chinese and Bãi Cỏ Mây in Vietnamese, per Wikipedia, and is claimed by Philippines, China, Vietnam and Taiwan (ROC) and lies closest to Philippines (approximately 120 miles). This is less than 20 miles from Mischief Reef to the South East, about 110 degrees.

The Philippines army grounded a rusty, WWII ship and maintains a presence full-time. This is also where the navies of China and the Philippines are having somewhat anxious and non-lethal confrontations to cause the Philippines to abandon their post. In recent days around April 2024, we read (in Reuters) that there have been heated discussions and additional water cannon usage, along with blocking of paths around the Second Thomas Shoal.

The Second Thomas Shoal is underwater and undeveloped. We see a pristine set of reefs, and ships sailing around, and one ship sitting still. Photos from 5/15/2020. Ship location: 9°46'46"N 115°53’24

Ship location via Sentinel-2 L2A on 7/31/2024: 
Lat: 9.789526, Lng: 115.856914. It is on the northwest side, a bit south of the upper corner. Using False Color, we see a few channels through the shoal, but no reclamation.


On or around October 23, 2023, there were reported collisions between Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militia vessels and Philippine task force (naval) ships attempting to resupply the BRP Sierra Madre, a grounded Philippine naval transport ship manned with Filipino marines to enforce its territorial claims in this area. 

On October 22, 2023, China accused a Philippine naval ship of trespassing into the area of the Nansha Islands and the Renai Reef, resulting in a collision of ships.
Picture
Boxall Reef
Southeast of Second Thomas Shoal is Boxall Reef which is undeveloped and below sea level. It is 0.9 miles long, and located at 9°36'21"N 116°09'08"E.

Hardy Reef is due north of Boxall Reef, and is also undeveloped and below sea, as of 3/11/2018. It is 0.42 miles long at location: 10°07'33"N 116°08'01"E.

Sabina Shoal a.k.a. Xianbin Reef (PRC), a.k.a., Escoda Shoal
​Sabina Shoal is east, between Hardy Reef and Boxall Reef. It is a long atoll structure, 14.3 miles long, and is a large pattern of reefs in the shape of a rectangular magnifying glass, with the handle pointing east and the rectangular glass pointing west by northwest. Sabina Shoal has a tiny sandy splotch, an ear-shaped cay of sand at location: 9°47'45"N 116°24'59"E which is in the northwest corner of the atoll. This was as of 5/17/2018 via Google Earth. 

We analyzed Sabina Shoal with imagery from 7/31/2024 on Copernicus Browser, eESA Sentinal-2 L2A satellite. We found a tiny bit of reclamation on the western coast of the shoal, at location: Lat: 9.792021, Lng: 116.421344. This must be very stressful for the Philippines if it isn't theirs. Looking at the shoal it has significant room for development along the outside, and we see a tiny splotch on the southernmost point, in the center of the shoal. Google Earth on 5/21/25 still shows a tiny sand cay.

This sandy reclamation is roughly 123 miles from Quezon in Palawan.

AP News: Source August 19, 2024, Chinese and Philippine Coast Guard ships collided at sea, damaging two vessels, near the Sabina Shoal. China is claiming the Sabina Shoal is its exclusive, sovereign territory and claims "indisputable sovereignty over the Spratly Islands", a.k.a Nansha Islands. The Philippines also requires access to that area. Journalists from a U.S. TV network were on board one of the Philippine Coast Guard Ships, the BRP Bagacay and the BRP Cape Engano. 

Sabina Shoal has submerged piles of crushed corals in its shallows that could indicate China is preparing to build a permanent structure on the island, which is only 85 miles west of Palawan.

USNI News: "Ray Powell, of Project SeaLight, also voiced concern about recent rhetoric raised by Chinese state media and government spokespeople around Escoda Shoal, a feature that has been the site of a four-month-long standoff between Philippine and Chinese Coast Guards. Since April, Philippine Coast Guard flagship BRP Teresa Magbanua (MRRV-9701) has faced off against numerous Chinese patrol vessels and warships. The Philippines has previously cited concerns about a potential reclamation attempt, similar to those at Subi and Mischief Reefs, for the Coast Guard deployment." (underlining is ours)

We also read that Sabina Shoal is now seeing significant Chinese fishing boat presence, in the order of 49 vessels at a time loitering in the area. Source: USNI News.
Picture
Sabina Shoal, Copernicus Browser, eESA, Sentinel-2, L2A, NDWI filter. 7/31/2024. You can see a small development on the NW corner, and a tiny anomaly in the southern tip.
Picture
Sandy cay in Sabina Shoal, Google Earth 5/17/2018.
Bombay Shoal, the last formation east of Sabina Shoal appears underwater and undeveloped. This  satellite image is from May 2017. Location: 9°27'25"N 116°55'19"E​
Picture
Bombay Shoal, Google Earth, 5/2/2017
There are five more formations west of Rizal and Sofronio Espanola in the Palawan island. We will review these moving from west to east.

Alicia Annie Reef is underwater and undeveloped. Google Earth 12/7/2018 and 6/15/2019. This is a well structured atoll, 4.8 miles long surrounding peaceful water.

First Thomas Shoal is a 4.0 mile long, east-west atoll with a well defined shape. It is undeveloped but we see two small reclamations or sand cays visible via satellite as of 10/5/2018 on Google Earth (photo below). Location: 10°01'38"N 113°50'50"E. This shoal is 110.3 miles west by northwest of Rizal, Philippines. It is also 44.9 miles south by southeast of Mischief Reef.

Picture
First Thomas Shoal, 10/5/2018 on Google Earth. Full atoll.
Picture
First Thomas Shoal reclamations (2) Google Earth 10/5/2018.
Northeast Investigator Shoal is east by southeast of First Thomas Shoal, and appears undeveloped. It looks like a well defined, fully enclosed 'pie shaped' atoll, and the edges look to be close to sea level. We see waves surrounding the island. Location: 9°10'18"N 116°28’00”E. Google Earth imagery 11/18/2018.

Royal Captain Shoal is southeast of Northeast Investigator Shoal, and is which is fully submerged and undeveloped. It is 2.3 miles long, and located at 10°01'38"N 113°50'50"E.

These atolls or shoals do not have navigation channels cut into them, allowing boats into the calm center. We notice this type of construction extensively in other parts of the Spratly Islands.
Picture
Half Moon Shoal is west by southwest of Royal Captain Shoal. This is a shoal made for an airfield, with a long, straight edge from Northeast to Southwest. There is a tiny little sand reclamation in the Northeast corner, right where the airstrip would begin (in our opinion). There is also a large channel on the southwest side of the shoal, where we think the airport would terminate, at location: 8°53'13"N 116°16'43"E.

Half Moon Shoal, location: 8°55'33"N 116°17’15”E, is a place to watch for new development. These satellite images are from June 11, 2019. Future airport potential here. Only 70 miles from Palawan Island in the Philippines.

Thanks to the straight line down the Eastern side, this would likely make a great airport, with a pre-made entry into the protected waters to the Southeast (likely where the airport would stop at the Southern end).
Picture
Picture
In summary, we see many reefs between Mischief Reef and Palawan island, and many reefs to the South and East of to Palawan, and all are underwater and undeveloped. Half Moon Shoal would make a great airfield just 70 miles off ther coast of the Philippines, and we see the initial efforts at island reclamation.

Area
Name 1
Nearest Land
Distance from Land (miles)
Location (latitude & longitude)
Diameter (miles)
Date of Satellite Imagery
Airport Present?
Helipad Present?
Port / Dock Facility Present?
Buildings Present?
Defensive Infrastructure Present?
Athletic Facilities Present?
Hospital Present?
Sand Only Island?
Dredging Infrastructure Only?


Spratly Islands
Half Moon Shoal
Philippines
70
8°54'16"N 116°15'18"E
4.0
12/14/2015
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
Yes

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  • Home
    • About Us & What We Do
    • Our Capabilities
    • Brochure
    • Positions
  • Projects
    • Quantum Computing >
      • Quantum Computing - What is it?
      • Investing in Quantum Computing Stocks
      • Early Use Cases for Quantum Computing (2019 & 2020)
      • Early Use Case - Detail
      • 2020 Quantum Computing Ecosystem
      • Platforms Detail
      • 2024 Quantum Computing - What we are seeing
      • PQC Post Quantum Cryptography
    • South China Sea >
      • Nearshore Islands >
        • Swallow Reef and multiple reefs near Malaysia
        • Louisa Reef, Brunei
        • Basco and Mavudis Islands, Batanes, Philippines
        • Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal, Philippines
        • Laut Island, Indonesia
        • Natuna Island, Indonesia
        • Dao Bach Long, Vietnam, Gulf of Tonkin
        • Koh Paulo Wai, and related islands in Kien Giang Province, Vietnam, Gulf of Thailand
        • Con Dao and Vanguard Bank, Vietnam
        • Long Hai, Vietnam
        • Qizhou Liedao & Nanshi, Hainan, China
        • Dongsha, Pratas Islands, Republic of China
        • Penghu County, Republic of China
        • Kinmen County Islands, Republic of China
        • Southern South China Sea
        • Mengalum, Pulau Tiga and Kampong Mantanani , Malaysia
        • Strategic underwater reef of the coast of mainland China
      • Spratly Islands >
        • Subi Reef, China, Spratly Islands
        • Mischief Reef, Spratly Islands
        • Fiery Cross Reef, Yongshu Jiao, China, Spratly Islands
        • Thitu Island, Pag-asa, Kalayaan, Spratly Islands
        • Taiping Island, Spratly Islands
        • Spratly Island and Ladd Reef Vietnam, Spratly Islands
        • North Danger Reef & Trident Shoal, Spratly Islands
        • Irving Reef, West York and Loaita Bank, Spratly Islands
        • Sand Cay, Namyit Island, and Gaven Reef, Tizard Bank, and Great Discovery Reef, Spratly Islands
        • Union Bank, Johnson South Reef, Sin Cowe, Hughes Reef, Whitsun Reef, Spratly Islands
        • Nanshan Island, Flat Island, Iroquois Reef, Jackson Atoll, Spratly Islands
        • Sabina Shoal, Second Thomas Shoal to Half Moon Shoal, West of Palawan, Spratly Islands
        • Amboyna Cay, Rifleman Bank, Barque Canada Reef, Vietnam
        • Erica Reef, Mariveles Reef, Investigator Island and Viper North, Spratly Islands
        • Pearson, Alison, Cornwallis, and Pigeon Reef, Vietnam Occupied
        • Luconia Breakers, Brunei and Malaysia Coast, Spratly Islands
        • London Reefs, Vietnam and Cuarteron Reef a.k.a. Huayang Island, China, Spratly Islands
      • Paracel Islands, China, PRC Overview, South China Sea >
        • Woody Island and Rocky Island, China, Paracel Islands
        • Triton Island, Zhongjian Dao, China, Paracel Islands
        • North Reef, NW Paracel Islands
        • Tree Island, West Sand, North, Middle, South Islands, and the Three Sisters, Xuande Islands, Amphitrite Group, Paracel Islands
        • Lincoln Island, Bombay Reef and Vuladore Reef, Paracel Islands
        • Duncan, Drummond, Pattle, Money and Antelope islands, Crescent Group, Paracel Islands
      • Participant List
      • Active Conflict Areas
      • Energy Transportation, Resources & Production
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    • Yellow Sea Construction
    • Iran Overview >
      • Iranian Energy Export Capabilities
      • Iranian Energy Production Capabilities
      • Iranian Energy Refining Capabilities
      • Iranian Importation of Afghan Opium in 2024
  • Advisory
    • Separately Managed Accounts
    • Pharmacy Retail Trends 2024
    • US Residential Real Estate Economic Analysis
  • Insights