Research into the South China Sea
On April 29, 2025, we began our periodic update of this material.
Why?
Things are heating up in the South China Sea and the surrounding areas (e.g., ROC & East China Sea) and there has been some movement between Thitu / Pag-ASA and Subi Reef / Zhubi Jian with China and the Philippines planting flags on tiny Sandy Cays on Thitu Reef.
A few observations:
Chatham House, a British Think Tank, has given us a clue on some additional work to do. They suspect that there is island building underway by the Chinese at Sandy Cay (near Thitu and Subi), and Sabina Shoal (evidence of coral crushing and surveying work. These would put Chinese boots on the ground in very close proximity to Palawan Island, Philippines and coming closer to Malaysia, Indonesia and Bhutan.
Why?
Things are heating up in the South China Sea and the surrounding areas (e.g., ROC & East China Sea) and there has been some movement between Thitu / Pag-ASA and Subi Reef / Zhubi Jian with China and the Philippines planting flags on tiny Sandy Cays on Thitu Reef.
A few observations:
- China PLAN has launched a joint patrol of two carrier strike groups east of Japan and the Philippines, and conducted flight operations 750 nautical miles from Guam just off the island of Okinatori, Japan (Okinatori-shima) located here: 20°26'43"N 136°03'36"E. This is the most advanced Blue Water Navy exercise we have ever seen, and shows that China has the demonstrated capabilities to close the backdoor on Taiwan. With the third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, becoming operational in 2025, this would allow for incremental force projection to protect potential PRC - Taiwan operations.
- The EU is signing defense agreements with the Philippines.
- The French are coming to the South China Seas, by way of the Philippines.
- We are seeing India, Australia, the UK, Germany and Canada increasing their freedom of navigation patrols.
- The Philippines and Japan are seeing more activity on their borders that face the Republic of China. More patrols by the People's Republic of China into the waters near both nations.
- The Chinese and Russian navies are starting to work together with faster cadence, all the way to Alaska.
- The USA has moved a significant amount of attack capacity to Diego Garcia (according to open source Twitter).
- There are significant diplomatic movements w.r.t. the Philippine military alliances (see the French are coming)
- The lessening of explicit US defense guarantees in Europe as the USA pivots East.
Chatham House, a British Think Tank, has given us a clue on some additional work to do. They suspect that there is island building underway by the Chinese at Sandy Cay (near Thitu and Subi), and Sabina Shoal (evidence of coral crushing and surveying work. These would put Chinese boots on the ground in very close proximity to Palawan Island, Philippines and coming closer to Malaysia, Indonesia and Bhutan.
This is a topic of interest for our firm. We leverage Google Earth for satellite imagery and open source materials for our supporting facts. We seek satellite imagery from other satellite providers.
August 23, 2024: We signed up for Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. Let's see how this will help us. Thank you Copernicus and ESA. By August 27, 2024, we had used our entire data processing allotment for the month, and now have to wait until September. Good news is we made effective use of the imagery, and our South China Sea analysis is better for it.
August 28, 2024:
We organize our work into individual webpages on individual formations or groups of related formations, typically with one primary. For example, Woody & Rocky Island has its own web page: (Woody Island and Rocky Island, Paracel Islands), but you will find many formations in or near Tizard Bank on this page: (Sand Cay, Namyit Island, and Gaven Reef, Tizard Bank, and Great Discovery Reef, Spratly Islands).
We group all formations into nearshore Islands that are close to the coast, the Paracel Island and the Spratly Islands.
We also have a page where we focus on identifying countries engaged in the region, leaders and involved experts in those countries, and any relevant history, alliances, treaties or court findings.
Navigate the pages under this menu, or click the buttons below to learn more.
August 23, 2024: We signed up for Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. Let's see how this will help us. Thank you Copernicus and ESA. By August 27, 2024, we had used our entire data processing allotment for the month, and now have to wait until September. Good news is we made effective use of the imagery, and our South China Sea analysis is better for it.
August 28, 2024:
- We now discovered Maxar Technology's evaluation data called xpress. It has basic data from Google Maps and Open Street Map. Based on the terms of service, we cannot replicate any of the data, so we will just use it to 'get smarter' and evaluate the service for purchase. You may see our web-pages get smarter, and we will cite Maxar when their free, evaluation information was helpful to us.
- We also signed up for NASA Earth Data, and are starting to learn the site. It is far richer and more capable than we know how to use, so it may take us a few months (lol) to become effective with it.
- Airbus Intelligence does have imagery coverage of the South China Sea for purchase.
- USGS Earth Explorer has great data for the United States. We are looking at all the parks near our home right now...from space.
We organize our work into individual webpages on individual formations or groups of related formations, typically with one primary. For example, Woody & Rocky Island has its own web page: (Woody Island and Rocky Island, Paracel Islands), but you will find many formations in or near Tizard Bank on this page: (Sand Cay, Namyit Island, and Gaven Reef, Tizard Bank, and Great Discovery Reef, Spratly Islands).
We group all formations into nearshore Islands that are close to the coast, the Paracel Island and the Spratly Islands.
We also have a page where we focus on identifying countries engaged in the region, leaders and involved experts in those countries, and any relevant history, alliances, treaties or court findings.
Navigate the pages under this menu, or click the buttons below to learn more.
Analysis, discussion & report out (one hour)
$150.00
This is a service where you receive an hour of time spent analyzing a current situation. We will write up our findings and conduct a discussion with you, or your team. Cost is $150/hour and you may buy multiple hours to create a project.
Statement of work efforts are available, please request directly.
Out of pocket travel expenses are billed as incurred. Travel time is negotiable, but not free.