Top 10 Drivers of Stock Market Pricing: 2024
These are the top forces acting on U.S. stock market prices. They exert pressure on U.S. stock market prices based on 1) significant correlations to the S&P 500 Equity Index ETF, or 2) we hypothesize a relationship.
We have seen a few of them exhibit significant movement recently. These are material changes in the environment for U.S. equity valuations.
We have had client discussions where these factors are discussed for incorporation into our model.
We have seen a few of them exhibit significant movement recently. These are material changes in the environment for U.S. equity valuations.
We have had client discussions where these factors are discussed for incorporation into our model.
Category / Driver |
Value (available to clients) |
Correlation or Direction of Impact |
Stock Price Volatility - Historic even weighted portfolio Stock Price Volatility - Historic (SPY) Implied Volatility (VIX) - Price |
Value |
Negative, Inverse |
Expected Return (forward-looking %) |
Value |
Positive |
High Yield Corporate Bonds Price (HYG) |
Value |
Positive |
Real Estate Values / Market Price of REITS (USRT) |
Value |
Positive |
Industrial Metals Pricing (silver and copper) (SLV CPER) |
Value |
Neutral |
Energy Prices (Oil, Natural Gas) MCF=F UNG |
Value |
Neutral |
US Dollar (value of one dollar) DX-Y.NYB |
Value |
Negative, Inverse |
Gold Price GLD |
Value |
Neutral |
Long Bond Prices (Long UST Bonds TLT, Real Interest Rates TIP, &Mortgage Backed Securities MBB) |
Value |
Positive |
US Federal Government Cash Intake (Net of U.S. Federal Reserve Asset Balance Change minus U.S. Treasury General Account balance change over the past 2 weeks) |
Value |
Positive |
Bitcoin Price |
Value |
Unknown |
We calculate a forward expected return for all US-listed common stocks that pass data validation in the Chicago Quantum Net Score analysis, which is inclusive of dividends. We call this the Chicago Quantum Net Score Expected Return Indicator or CQNS_ERI. This is used in the analysis.