By: Jeffrey P. Cohen, Investment Advisor Representative
US Advanced Computing Infrastructure, Inc.
Ok, we see weakness across the US and Global (non-US) stock markets. Even Jakarta and Malaysia were down yesterday. However, mainland (PRC) China stocks were up. Europe is down. The cost of insurance is up significantly, as measured by the VIX. We get the feeling that traders are betting against US Equities using the Nasdaq Composite 100, The S&P 500 Index and the Russell 2000 Index. They are simultaneously buying puts, which will profit as the market drops (so, they make money both ways, actually 3 ways). Profit on the shorts, the puts and the insurance, and if they bought the VIX, they make money on that too.
Who is losing today? The individual retail investor who bought risky stocks. You know who else may be losing today? Bank depositors. The top 10 US banks are trading lower in pre-market. Not sure why, need to take a look.
Good luck in the markets today. Be careful, we have not seen a down Monday like this in a while, and it could define the week.
Other notes we took while recording our video:
1. Yield curve not really inverted anymore, the long bonds are dropping.
2. Corporate bonds, especially investment grade, are dropping (both yield, and risk)
3. Economic metals are down, slightly.
4. Energy is flat this morning.
5. Long UST Notes/bonds are flat.
6. Yahoo Finance VIX is up 18.25% this morning to 23.13. FinViz VIX was already at 24.50 last night.
7. Fallon: Fibonacci Retracement Support level markets were down 23.8%. Fibonacci circle is found in nature as being a very efficient shape. Snail is a fibonacci.
If you like Gold, NEM Newmont Mining.
If you like Copper, FCX Freeport McMoran
BX Blackstone $103.30
The Carlysle Group CG: $33.56
Narrative: Economy is doing great. Lots of Jobs. Inflation still a concern:
FRB: Continue QT and Interest Rate Hikes
Stock Market: US Equities: Will start to fall again
Bond Market (Corporate): Will also fall
US Treasuries (short-end will see higher yields) and (long-end: market will decide).
Short UST: unchanged
1-year UST are up to 3.3%
Mortgages are up 30-year fixed conforming: to 5.6%, and MBS are down sharply.
Quantitative Tightening Pattern (up and down) - rinse and repeat. Each time, it goes lower.
Silver under $20.00 an ounce.
Gold at $1,743 / oz
Bitcoin $21,250 (Hit $20k before $30k)
Walking Wounded and MEME stocks are down PM
Top 5 US Banks are down, PM
Money Managers: Down
Retail is down PM
FLEX: Flexsteel industries: up PM
Party City hold PRTY Up
Coal is up
Bitcoin related stocks are lower:
Physical mining - lower
This is the morning that people turn bearish.
VIX is up 4.55% this morning. (Finviz)
Pre-market: RED RED RED
Why are all of the top 10 US Regional Banks lower this morning?
- Recession Fears?
- Housing Fears?
- Interest Rates / Interest Income?
- New Law / Politics?
- USD - Stretch
Her name was Darya Dugan. Looks like a Red Sparrow, which would be a valid military target if true.
The Ukrainians are fighting back.
VIX Climbing is a signal for short-term pressure against US Equities.