July 15: Bear market rally OPEX

By Jeffrey Cohen, Investment Advisor Representative
US Advanced Computing Infrastructure, Inc.

Market is set to rise today. Happened on large index futures bets 30 minutes before opening.

US Dollar is weaker today, and this helps commodity prices (priced globally in dollars) to rise. 

Just a remember...the market may be going up this morning, but the longer-term trend is bearish and market breadth was significantly negative yesterday.
Fixed Income: ~20:1 new lows to new highs
US Equities: ~40:1 new lows to new highs.

Variance is flattening but at a significantly higher level. It did not rise yesterday (lol) because the market fell then rose to close with a very small gain or loss. Intra-day moves were significant, ~2% yesterday, but the close paints the tape.

US Treasuries are stronger at the longer end (10-year and 30-year). Solid gains in long bonds. However, the short bonds are down, and short-term yields are up. 1-year US Treasury Yields were ~ 3.15%, which is higher than 10-year UST Yields of < 3%. This is a significant inversion of the yield curve and a 'harbinger of bad things to come.'  Harbinger...or sooth-sayer or oracle of doom *(recession, correction, decline).

Our black swan event on the horizon is war with Russia and NATO. We realize that sanctions against Russia are going to cause poverty and economic pain across Europe due to the cut-off in energy supplies (if it persists). Zero Hedge article naming Deutsche Bank article made me sad this morning. It shows Germans chopping wood, or burning books and furniture, to stay warm. That is poverty in action, and unrealistic. It just means cold, sickness and death across Europe. Let's hope the worlds reaches a peaceful settlement to the crisis in Ukraine, or a decisive and swift victory.

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