Hello all, we have tweeted about different asset classes today. Bonds likely down further, gold and oil up, gasoline too 'damn' high, and VIX and USD down a little.
However, what do we see in the US stock market today?
By way of context, we see downward pressure on the market, and just read that foreigners have been selling US equities in March 2022 (half of the net selling for the year ending March 2022 happened in march). We see FED tightening (threatened, but not yet started), and higher rates. We see a downward spiral of equity and fixed income prices. Yes, bonds are down too.
Firstly, today was a good day for us personally. Our three stocks all rose today (thank goodness, we have lost ~15% in the past 2 weeks, and this brings us back to only a catastrophic loss).
Key indicator industry sectors:
Money Managers: down mostly
Specialty Retail: down mostly
Physical miners: up mostly
Cannabis: (the stocks that went up, went up ALOT, but mixed overall)
Chips and Semiconductors: down
Trucking and transport: down, mostly
Personal computers: down, mostly
Stonks: (shitcos) are mixed (but with large moves either up or down. Some big swings)
Quantum computing: down
Overall, our canary in a coalmine stock sectors were down today, which supports the fall in the three main indices:
Our currently efficient portfolios
7 stocks: Median return -2.5%
11 stocks: Median return -2.5%
This is 8x worse than the $SPY. It was not a good day for efficient stocks (lower risk, higher reward - or lower price variance & higher BETA)
It was a good day to be out of the market, because even a hedge against the SPY would not have rescued today's efficient portfolios.
Our strategy for clients: FOMO is a cost effective strategy.
However, if you were lucky to be in just the right stock, you rode the low levels of liquidity higher. Our personal portfolio of 3 US common stocks (~3.5% of assets) rose 11.4% today, and is only down 40.9%.
FOMO keeps your cash (and yourself) dry and ready for when market conditions change.